With the publication on the 19th of March of the interim report, planning for investment in product audits and new product development gains an extra edge.
Experience of previous curriculum and assessment reviews tells us that, whatever the public, DfE-mediated discourse around levels of change, behind the scenes work will already be well underway to enable publication in the Autumn of the full report.
The Autumn report promises a detailed subject-by-subject, phased review. It’s there that the main threats and opportunities lie for the educational content industry. This is referred to as a ‘deeper analysis to diagnose the specific issues affecting each subject and explore and test a range of solutions’ elsewhere in the report (Interim report, p. 9).
What’s happening now and what should you do about it
Recalling my own experience from previous reviews, and cross-referencing it with what I’ve gleaned over the last few weeks of what is happening now, we can confidently conclude the following will be underway:
- For each subject, one or more associations, groups or individuals will have established direct and ongoing contact with the review team. They will have moved from lobbying potential change to drafting what that change will be at the level of objectives, topics and themes. Subjects will perhaps be split into primary and secondary, or perhaps considered together given the focus on KS2/KS3 progression.
- For each assessment change, detailed specification changes will have been planned and will be under discussion, along with their knock-on consequences. Sure, the review will not ‘fundamentally change the number of subjects that students study or are assessed in at GCSE’ (Interim report, p. 10), but the types of assessment methods used and the volume of papers for each exam is very much up for review.
- Curriculum and assessment will be considered together, and probably on a subject-by-subject basis. ‘Changes to the national curriculum need to be accompanied by corresponding changes in the assessment and accountability systems’ (Position paper, p. 4).
- Cross-subject issues such as SEND, and cross-subject skills such as critical thinking, digital skills and oracy, will be on the table. Though how this is managed (at subject committee level, or with a separate committee, for example) will affect the outcome.
What else is on the table?
The following may or may not be happening, depending on the level of engagement of the review:
An implementation timeline for change in general will be mapped out, at least in principle. This may include whether it differs from subject to subject, and whether the government expects a year-by-year roll-out as cohorts progress through school, a roll-out that’s gradual but not related to cohort progression, or a ‘big bang’ with exemptions.
In 2014, for example, the whole curriculum was introduced at once in September. Though there were delays to implementation for years 2 and 6 and for KS4 English, maths and science to allow them to be adequately prepared for National Tests and GCSEs respectively. The roll-out of new A level and GCSE qualification specifications including 9-1 grading was phased between 2015 and 2020.
Funding for implementation (including professional development and perhaps even resources) may be being argued for. Though currently the Treasury is keeping expectations incredibly low in this regard. To introduce the national numeracy and literacy strategies, and later phonics, different approaches were taken to support schools. In all cases, there was significant recognition of the need for professional development and implementation support through resources.
Implementation funding could be on your risk register – what if the government produces national resources that suppress demand? Or, it could be on your opportunity list through the recurring dream of ringfenced funding.
How you can get ahead
The most important things now are to have intelligence and insight, and the capacity to create data-rich scenario plans for how change might drive the market.
The right intelligence and insight can allow you to make low-risk changes and innovations to get ahead of the market. Knowing what won’t change will allow you to meet market needs ahead of the competition. Leveraging the insights of your authors, advisers and consultants can help you gain awareness of what will change and how you can get ahead of the competition.
Creating data-rich plans allows you to run your three or five year plan through various scenarios in order to take the right strategic action now. Do most scenarios point towards a ‘race to the finish’ market, where marginal gains in speed and accuracy will be decisive? If so, equipping your team through research, professional development and customer engagement while the report gears up could be a good solution. Or, does a more gradual, low-stakes roll-out suggest that long term customer experience improvements, or pedagogical innovations, will win out? In that case, extending your author and influencer network, and investing in partnerships could be the best route.
Beware of skulduggery…
The last thing to beware of is skulduggery. In a previous review, I remember taking a phone call in the middle of a field from a subject specialist. They had discovered that, despite the fact that they were officially on the subject review team, the curriculum drafts they were reviewing were in fact going to be made obsolete by a secret curriculum document being developed directly with the minister by other members of the team.
Although the review has warned that ‘radical, theory (vision)-driven reforms have little to no impact on the work and practice of schools and classrooms’ (Position paper, p. 6), there’s a perennial temptation for ministers and officials to grant one or more personal hobby horses some advantage. Whether that’s the particular topics they studied or the version of an evidence-based approach advocated by an individual of influence.
Your next steps
So to recap on where your attention needs to be, if it’s not already:
- Which subjects are most likely to see change at the detailed level, whether in assessment or curriculum? These changes directly affect content, so get ahead of them now.
- Which individuals or organisations appear to have influence? Talk to them directly, confidentially, to find out what influence they have, and get your partnerships or channels of information established.
- What strategic (high level) changes will impact where you allocate your investment at portfolio level? Primary versus secondary? English and maths versus foundation subjects? Cross-subject skills versus the subjects themselves? Vocational/technical versus academic? For a big company looking for maximum impact on revenue, this level of change can be more important than individual ones. For smaller companies looking for an entry point, looking at strategic changes can provide insight to areas that might get ignored by the bigger players.
Make the right changes for your customers
Will the outcome be a curriculum which allows empowered, highly-skilled teachers to deliver what the review states as its aims? A curriculum for a love of learning, for breadth and depth, and for mastery? A curriculum with coherent sequences, that is up to date and knowledge rich? The education industry has its part to play in that, which makes your work all the more important.
For insight and consultancy support to make the right changes for your customers, get in touch with Oriel Square today:
- Publishing and product strategy consultancy
- Detailed subject knowledge
- Customer insight programmes
- Workflow optimisation
- Customer experience improvement
Get in touch to ask about a strategy session with our team.